The January Juggle
As of early January 2024, the financial markets exhibit a complex interplay of trends across various asset classes. Currencies are on a divergent path, with the USD strengthening against the Yen, while the Euro and Pound are continued their path from the last three months.
US equities, specifically the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are on an upward trajectory, signaling continued market confidence due to positive earnings and investor sentiment. However, Developed Markets have not kept pace, possibly due to changing regional dynamics.
Emerging Markets have declined in the short term while Global Bonds have seen a slight retreat, aligning with a cautious approach in fixed income amidst a changing interest rate landscape.
The US 10-Year T-Bond yield's ticked up while the stable US 10-Year BEI rate indicates anchored inflation expectations. Credit spreads are steady, implying a consensus on credit risk and a positive outlook on corporate stability.
Commodity results are mixed; Gold has retreated slightly but maintains a positive longer-term trend, reinforcing its safe-haven status. Silver declines across the board, possibly due to its industrial demand. Oil prices have risen in the short term, stabilizing after a tumultuous year.
Cryptocurrencies are markedly volatile, with Bitcoin showing strong gains, emerging from from the rest of the pack as Ethereum, Ripple and Solana experienced strong mean reversion.
"You learn in this business: If you want a friend, get a dog." - Carl Icahn